Lito’s Final Oscar Predictions 2016!
Okay, here’s who I think will go home with Oscar on Sunday night! Some of these categories will be nail-biters. Most of the major category are open and shut cases, but Best Picture is still a thrilling mystery… or is it? Here’s my take on all 24 categories. Here’s who I think will win, not who I necessarily want to win. The “Should Win” section is based on the films that are actually nominated. For my own personal list, see my Jade Dragon Film Award articles.
Best Cinematography
WILL WIN: THE REVENANT
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: THE REVENANT
COMMENTS: No Brainer
Best Film Editing
WILL WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COULD WIN: THE BIG SHORT
SHOULD WIN: SPOTLIGHT
COMMENTS: A nail-biter between Mad Max & The Big Short. Both won Editing Guild prizes, but despite the cheeky gimmick of The Big Short’s editing, the crafted, frenzied genius of Mad Max should win over by a hair.
Best Sound Mixing
WILL WIN: THE REVENANT
COULD WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
SHOULD WIN: THE REVENANT
COMMENTS: This could to either of the above films. The Revenant recently won the Audio Guild award, which gives it a slight edge. That, and it’s better poised to take Best Picture, which gives it points.
Best Sound Editing
WILL WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COULD WIN: THE REVENANT
SHOULD WIN: MAD MAX FURY ROAD
COMMENTS: The Revenant could go for a daunting sweep here, but I think the noisy and sound effects heavy Mad Max will prevail.
Best Production Design
WILL WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COULD WIN: THE DANISH GIRL
SHOULD WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COMMENTS: Even though I think Mad Max has the edge here, there is still a great possibility it could lose to another contender. If The Revenant were to win here, that’d be kind of silly, but The Danish Girl could surprise.
Best Costume Design
WILL WIN: CINDERELLA
COULD WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
SHOULD WIN: CINDERELLA
COMMENTS: There’s a diverse consensus as to where this award will go. Statistically, the film that’s got the most pageant-like costumes (i.e. bigger and bolder is better theory) tends to pan out. Sandy Powell is also nominated for her 50’s work on Carol, but for whatever people thought of the film, Cinderella’s costumes should be stunning enough to take the top spot. The Danish Girl and Mad Max could contend.
Best Makeup & Hair Design
WILL WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COULD WIN: THE REVENANT
SHOULD WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COMMENTS: Only if The Revenant is on an avalanche-like sweep can it overtake the dominance that Mad Max has on this category.
Best Documentary Feature
WILL WIN: AMY
COULD WIN: CARTEL LAND
SHOULD WIN: AMY
COMMENTS: Amy is well liked and has a more “mainstream” appeal. But Cartel Land has its ardent supporters. Who will be enough? This race looks pretty darn tight.
Best Documentary Short Subject
WILL WIN: Body Team 12
COULD WIN: Girl
COMMENTS: The hell if I know.
Best Live Action Short Film
WILL WIN: AVE MARIA
COULD WIN: SHOK
COMMENTS: See Documentary Short Subject
Best Animated Short Film
WILL WIN: Sanjay’s Super Team
COULD WIN: Bear Story
COMMENTS: Pixar’s Sanjay’s Super Team has lots of fans. Pixar also tends to do well here. But Bear Story has a passionate following. Much like the Documentary Feature race.
Best Animated Feature
WILL WIN: INSIDE OUT
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: INSIDE OUT
COMMENTS: Yawn.
Best Foreign Language Film
WILL WIN: SON OF SAUL
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: SON OF SAUL
COMMENTS: See Animated Feature
Best Original Score
WILL WIN: THE HATEFUL EIGHT
COULD WIN: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
SHOULD WIN: THE HATEFUL EIGHT
COMMENTS: It seems like destiny that one of the greatest film composers of all time (Morricone) who still has never won a competitive Oscar, will get his due. But could dispassionate reaction to The Hateful Eight cost Morricone the win? Will Star Wars be a default choice? Could it be a third party surprise? We shall see… we shall see.
Best Original Song
WILL WIN: SPECTRE
COULD WIN: THE HUNTING GROUND
SHOULD WIN: SPECTRE
COMMENTS: Perhaps I’m being stubborn and foolish to continue thinking the Bond song will prevail over the socially conscious tune to the documentary The Hunting Ground. Sung by Lady Gaga… how tempting would it be to throw this pop megastar diva an Oscar? Plus, songwriter Diane Warren (often nominated, always a bridesmaid) is up again… Yet somehow, I am sticking with my gut to predict a “safer” and more mass wide-appeal song to take it home. That’d be the Spectre song. I’ll probably regret this, but what the hey…
Best Visual Effects
WILL WIN: THE REVENANT
COULD WIN: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKENS
SHOULD WIN: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
COMMENTS: So, at the last, last minute I’m changing my predictions. The nominees here are all so worthy. I switched from Mad Max thinking that the film’s reliance on practical vs. CGI effects would impress the voters. Now, I’ve switched to The Revenant, a film that’s poised to win Best Picture, but also features visual effects that serve the story rather than call attention to themselves. That damn bear scene… it may just take it all the way. However, this is probably where Star Wars has its best shot at taking home a prize. But then again, Star Wars has been honored in this category on several occasions. I hope I’m wrong and Mad Max pulls it off, but it’s not seeming likely at this point.
Best Adapted Screenplay
WILL WIN: THE BIG SHORT
COULD WIN: ROOM
SHOULD WIN: ROOM
COMMENTS: Based on history, it seems that The Big Short winning here is an open and shut case. However, like in 2009 when Up in the Air was the presumed lock in this category, I keep wondering if maybe there will be that surprise upset, like when Precious beat Up in the Air. Room seems to be the film that could do it as it has ardent and passionate supporters. However, this is The Big Short’s best shot at taking a prize. And so shall it be.
Best Original Screenplay
WILL WIN: SPOTLIGHT
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: SPOTLIGHT
COMMENTS: It just can’t be anything else. Spotlight doesn’t seem like it will prevail in any other category. The closest rival Spotlight has is Inside Out and the animated prejudice can’t stop this train of inevitability. This is Spotlight’s prize to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
WILL WIN: ALICIA VIKANDER
COULD WIN: KATE WINSLET
SHOULD WIN: ROONEY MARA
COMMENTS: Vikander has the right momentum. She won BFCA and SAG. Winslet got the Globe and BAFTA, but in those instances, Vikander was competing for Lead Actress, so this is why the Swedish breakout will win award on Oscar night. Winslet is breathing down her neck though.
Best Supporting Actor
WILL WIN: SYLVESTER STALLONE
COULD WIN: MARK RYLANCE
SHOULD WIN: TOM HARDY
COMMENTS: The comeback underdog narrative of Sylvester Stallone is a song that has not gone out of style once this awards season and it’s likely he’ll take it all the way home. Having been nominated for and losing both acting and screenplay awards in 1976 for the original Rocky, this just feels like the right time. Plus, Globe and BFCA wins helped cement this status. Mark Rylance is the only person who really stands a chance at taking Sly down, but don’t bet on it.
Best Actress
WILL WIN: BRIE LARSON
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: BRIE LARSON
COMMENTS: Brie Larson came, saw and conquered. Hers was the right performance at the right time and frankly, no one came close to contending even when there was ample opportunity. She’s been winning everything in sight. This is Room’s only real shot at a prize and this is where it will land.
Best Actor
WILL WIN: LEONARDO DICAPRIO
COULD WIN: N/A
SHOULD WIN: MICHAEL FASSBENDER
COMMENTS: The Leo show… all the way. His overdue status and previous Oscar losses are just too powerful a narrative for any other poor sap to contend. Case closed.
Best Director
WILL WIN: ALEJANDRO GONZALEZ INARRITU
COULD WIN: GEORGE MILLER
SHOULD WIN: TOM MCCARTHY
COMMENTS: Though many find it hard to believe that Inarritu will win two in a row, momentum this season goes against that stat. Win Globe, BAFTA and DGA wins under his belt, Inarritu has all the right support to win again. His is a true director’s picture and even if another films walks off with Best Picture, he should at least feel safe in a win here. George Miller is giving him a run for his money, but he has lost all the major prizes sans BFCA. Adam McKay and Tom McCarthy might’ve been viable shots if they’d won a major prize in the season, but they didn’t. And lovely Lenny Abrahamson is just lucky to be here.
Best Picture
WILL WIN: THE REVENANT
COULD WIN: THE BIG SHORT
SHOULD WIN: SPOTLIGHT
COMMENTS: The ultimate nail-biter. Momentum seems to the flowing towards The Revenant. With its 12 nominations, massive box-office and mass appeal (to most, anyway) it seems to be a truly sensate experience that exemplifies what the medium can accomplish on a visual level. It won the Globe and BAFTA. However, when The Big Short surprised and won the PGA (which has been accurately matched with Best Picture winners since the preferential balloting system came into play), the talk was all about that film. However, The Big Short is a comedy (of sorts), which gets demoted to a “light” film and said movies have a tough time taking the top prize. Also, it didn’t win anything else but the PGA, which could indicate that its PGA win was more of a fluke than true, passionate support. Spotlight could pull a shocker because if that film wins, then it will truly have been due to passion. It’s had an uphill battle after its BFCA win and then losing all other major prizes except the SAG Ensemble award. If The Big Short wins the Editing Oscar, be prepared to see it pull a win for the top spot, but The Revenant will be the likely winner here.
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